How will the Dublin Airport passenger cap affect your holidays, and is it here to stay?

Aer Lingus had something to sing about last week: the carrier roped in country star Nathan Carter to launch a planned new service from Dublin to Nashville, Tennessee next summer. Airlines using celebrities to plug new routes is nothing unusual. But Aer Lingus is one of those that has been warning that a 32 million annual passenger limit at Dublin Airport is hindering growth, driving up air fares, hurting tourism and curbing choice.
So how, in the face of this, will it fly country fans to the Grand Ole Opry next year? Or to any other North American destination? By cutting short haul services to Europe and shifting the capacity to transatlantic services, a part of its business it is keen to develop. That could limit options for anyone who wants to fly to Europe, where many Irish people holiday.
It could also alarm any American carrier that wants to compete with Aer Lingus for business between Dublin and Nashville, and that does not have the option of cutting short-haul routes. The likelihood that the cap, or any steps taken to enforce it, breaches the EU-US open skies agreement (which allows airlines from both jurisdictions fair and equal access to each other’s airports and markets) raised its head this week.
Industry group Airlines for America is seeking to join a High Court case taken by local carriers Ryanair and Aer Lingus against seat limits imposed by regulators on carriers at Dublin Airport in a move to ensure compliance with the cap. That group argues that this breaches the EU-US deal.
Keith Glatz, its senior vice-president, international affairs, points out that if the supposedly neutral cap results in “competitive harm or competitive discrimination” then that would give US airlines grounds for a fair trade practices complaint to their government. That could ultimately result in Washington taking steps such as barring Irish airlines from access to the US.
But Glatz cautions that nobody thinks the situation will reach that point. In fact, he says there are grounds for believing that between them, the Irish and US governments and EU Commission can find a solution. “We’re in constant contact with all levels of the Irish Government and the commission,” he says. “We believe there is good progress being made.”
Right now, no airline – Aer Lingus, Ryanair or any US or overseas carrier – is likely to get extra take-off or landing slots at Dublin Airport over the next year. This week, the industry’s regulator, the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) announced that it would limit carriers there to 25.2 million seats for the 2025 summer season, which runs from late March to October.
This will cut the number of seats available to passengers next summer by around one million. The authority has already set a maximum of 14.4 million seats from later this month to March. The authority did this on foot of the overall 32 million-a-year passenger cap.
Kenny Jacobs, chief executive of State-owned airport operator DAA, maintains that even though the cap applies to its business, the company cannot legally stop aircraft landing at Dublin or passengers from boarding them. Consequently, the only way to limit airline activity to ensure compliance with the passenger cap was to limit the available take off and landing slots. The only body that can do this is the IAA, which has the power to allocate these slots under EU regulations.
The IAA is careful to clarify that it is not enforcing planning conditions. Instead, it simply takes them into account when making its decisions along with a proposal tabled by DAA at meetings of a co-ordination committee that advises the authority on what, if any, limits it should apply when allocating slots at the airport.
But the net effect is still that, to ensure compliance with a planning condition imposed by one State agency (An Bord Pleanála) on a second State organisation (DAA), a third State body (the IAA) must limit the activities of numerous private companies, that is, the airlines using the airport.
The authority’s limit for the next 12 months is 39.2 million, not 32 million. This is because airlines do not sell every seat on every flight, and because Dublin handles several million passengers every year who are transferring from one flight to another (so don’t enter or leave through the airport’s front doors). The planners’ cap does not apply to them as it is meant to control traffic on nearby roads, rather than movement through the Dublin’s terminals.
While 32 million passengers would have been a record not so long ago, Dublin could potentially handle substantially more than that. This week’s IAA statement notes that “the planning condition remains in existence, and is limiting available slot capacity below the capacity of the physical infrastructure”.
Further on, it adds that if the cap were not there, airlines would not only keep all seats from last summer, but the authority would also be able to accommodate all requests for new capacity. But while the cap remains, the regulator says there is “very little, if any” scope for this. At the same time, the IAA acknowledges that demand from airlines for space at Dublin Airport next summer will “significantly exceed the 25.2 million seat cap”.
In short, there is a lot more space available at Dublin Airport and the airlines want to fill it, but the 32 million a-year passenger limit imposed by planners means that the IAA cannot give it to them. Realistically that means no new entrants, and no “ad hoc” extra flights to cater for spikes in demand.
And the loss of one million seats from this summer means those that are already using the airport face the prospect of reductions. The IAA says it will prioritise carriers that operated slots for five weeks or longer this summer when it is allocating space in 2025.
But that will not satisfy airlines, particularly Aer Lingus and Ryanair, the airport’s biggest and most significant carriers by some distance. Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s chief executive, says bluntly that the IAA’s move is unlawful. “The European courts will throw it out,” he adds.
Ryanair’s response to the IAA’s draft decision on summer schedules warns that its existing slots at Dublin Airport are “valuable rights”. It says that the IAA has no statutory basis to interfere with those entitlements and is exceeding its powers by “purporting to extinguish vested rights”.
Ryanair, Aer Lingus and the DAA have already asked the High Court to review the authority’s slot allocations for this winter. They can use the same proceedings to challenge the summer ruling when the case is heard on December 3rd. O’Leary confirmed that his company had already instructed its lawyers to do just that.
Aer Lingus also maintains that the IAA has no basis for its summer scheduling decision, but says it is assessing its legal options. While it is more restrained than Ryanair, it would be a major surprise to most in the industry if Aer Lingus did not also challenge the authority’s latest decision.
While no one can predict the outcome, most observers believe the Irish courts will refer the issue to Europe, as it turns on EU regulations and has implications for the bloc’s air travel treaties with the US. There is a precedent, of sorts. Earlier this year, the Netherlands backed down from a bid to limit capacity at Amsterdam Schiphol in the face of protests from Airlines for America member JetBlue, which also has operations at Dublin.
The Dutch authorities wanted to limit activity at Schiphol for various environmental reasons, including limiting noise. The EU Commission hailed the about-turn as a victory for consumers, and told the press that it would have intervened had the Netherlands persisted.
So far, the Irish Government has avoided intervening directly in the airport cap row, even while most travel industry figures argue that a political solution is the only way out of the fix. Eamon Ryan, Minister for Transport, has consistently said that he cannot interfere in the planning process.
But that could take several years, DAA applied 10 months ago to the airport’s planning authority, Fingal County Council, to have the cap increased to 40 million. Fingal sought further information on the application, which DAA is due to provide next month. Any decision faces almost certain appeals.
Glatz says he is optimistic that politicians can solve the problem, although he suggests it could take months rather than weeks. He argues that whatever the minister’s or Government’s stance on the planning process they cannot disregard the Republic’s obligations under the EU-US treaty. “You can’t just wash your hands of your treaty duties,” he says.
O’Leary argues that there is a quicker solution. Ryanair wants the minister to direct the IAA to grant all airline slot requests, and says it has advice from senior counsel that he can do this under section 10 of the Aviation Regulation Act. However, the Department of Transport maintains that this power only allows Ryan to give directions on general policy, and does not extend to specific operations.
Ryan’s cabinet colleagues, including Taoiseach Simon Harris and his predecessor Leo Varadkar, have all said that the cap should be lifted, but have taken no steps themselves beyond this. Whether or not a general election, now thought to be likely within weeks, will change this depends on who takes over from the current minister.
In the meantime, anyone who is looking for cheap summer flights, or is planning to travel to one of Ireland’s three away Six Nations games next spring, should book early – because at this stage, it looks like air fares will be nothing to sing about.